Pakistan Federal Budget 2026-2027

 Accountant Forum




Pakistan Federal Budget Briefing

Amount in USD$

                             2025-26     2026-27    Notes

                              Actual      Budget

Macro

Using 1 USD$            280         280           Same 

                                         $              $

GDP Size                  452.1Rs  506.0   +$53.9B /                                                                         +11.9%     

GDP Growth                3.7%      4.0%  +0.3pp

Population                  0.252    0.257   +2% est

Labour force               0.084   0.088

Participation%            33%

Unemployment             7.1%

Per Capita Income   1,901     1,970   +3.6%

Avg Inflation CPI          6.2%   8.2%  +2.0pp

Policy Interest Rate   11.5%  11-12%  est SBP                                                                          cut  from                                                                       22% peak

External

FX Reserves Total           21.8B  20-22    Stable.                                                                            Import                                                                          cover                                                                              2.8                                                                                   months

Remittances                       30.3  33          +5-9%. 

Trade Deficit                      27.9  30         +Imports                                                     +6.9% 

Current Account        +0.072    -0.5%                                                  

Fiscal & Debt

Total Outlay                  58.2       67       8.8+15%

FBR Tax Target            46.3       54.5   +8.2 / +18%

Taxpayers Filed           6.1M     7.0M      2.5% 

Fiscal Deficit GDP       3.9%       3.6%                                                                22.7      18.6       -0.3pp

Primary SurplusGDP  3.2%     2%

                                          14.5      10.3     -1.2pp

Total Debt Servicing   29.3     28.7      -$0.6

Spending Priorities

Defence Budget               9.1    10.7   +1.6 / +18%

Federal PSDP Dev          3.6     3.6.   No real                                                                          increase

Total PSDP Fed+Prov 

                                            12.5  13.2     +0.7/ +5.6%

Pensions                              3.8 4.2       +0.4 

Subsidies Total                 4.1  3.9       0.2 Power subsidy cut

NFC to Provinces           26.6  26.4    Flat. Provinces get 57% 

Punjab 51.74%                 13.74  13.67   .-70

Sindh 24.55%                      6.52   6.49     -30

KPK 14.62%                         3.89   3.86    -0.30

Balochistan 9.09%             2.42   2.40   -0.20

3 key points about NFC in this budget:

1. Total transfer flat/slightly down: 

Rs 7.44T → Rs 7.40T. Even though federal revenue target is up 18%, provinces get ∼57% of divisible pool. So their amount depends on FBR collection, not budget size.

2. Punjab gets >half: 

$13.67B of the $26.43B total. Balochistan gets least at $2.40B but has highest per-capita due to small population.

3. Provinces control spending: 

After NFC, provinces spend on education, health, local govt. Federal govt keeps defence, debt, federal expenses.









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